一、Inductance principle analysis

    Inductance is a passive electronic component that can store electrical energy in the form of magnetic flux. Usually the wire is wound. When a current flows, a magnetic field is generated from the right side of the current flowing direction. "Inductance, capacitance, and electricity" are the three basic passive components of electronics.

    Schematic diagram of inductance principle

Data source: compilation of public information

    Related report: " 2019-2025 China Electronic Component Industry Market Monitoring and Future Prospect Forecast Report " released by Zhiyan Consulting

    According to different manufacturing processes, inductors can be divided into traditional plug-in inductors and chip inductors. Traditional plug-in inductors mainly use the winding process, that is, the current flows in the copper wire wound on the magnetic core, such as ring inductors, air-core coils, etc., which are characterized by a wide range of inductance, high inductance accuracy, low loss, and power Large, simple production process, short production cycle, sufficient supply of raw materials, but there are disadvantages such as low production automation, high production cost, and difficulty in miniaturization.

    二、Analysis of the development of the inductor industry

    1、Analysis of the distribution of inductance application fields

    Inductance is one of the three major passive electronic components (capacitors, inductors and resistors). As an indispensable basic electronic component in electronic circuits, the main function of inductors is to screen signals, filter noise, stabilize current, and suppress electromagnetic interference (EMI).

    Mobile communication is the main application area of inductors. The downstream application fields of inductance components are very extensive, and mobile communication is the terminal application market with the largest inductance. In terms of output value, mobile communications accounted for 35% of the global inductor market, and by volume, mobile communications accounted for 55% of the global inductor market. The reason for the inconsistency in the market share of mobile communications by production value and by quantity is that mobile phone inductors are relatively cheap. For example, compared with car inductors, the price of the former is roughly one-tenth of the latter.

    The global inductor market is expected to reach US$3.75 billion in 2019. In 2014, the global inductor market was 780 million U.S. dollars. With the increase in the use of single-unit inductors in communications and consumer electronics, and the rise of demand in emerging fields such as automobiles and the Internet of Things, Micro Market Monitor predicts that it will reach 3.75 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, an annual compound The rate of increase was 6.2%.

    Global inductance terminal application market distribution: by output value

Data source: compilation of public information

    Global inductance terminal application market distribution: by quantity

Data source: compilation of public information

Inductance demand in common electronic products

Data source: compilation of public information

    2、 Analysis of the competitive landscape of the inductor industry

    Industry competition pattern: The standardization of inductance components is relatively high, and the global inductance industry concentration is on the rise. The degree of standardization of inductance components is relatively high. The core competitiveness of the inductance field lies in leading advantages in technology and cost, expansion of production capacity, and yield The promotion and other factors. Therefore, the market concentration in the inductor field has gradually increased. The market share of the world's top six inductor manufacturers has increased from 45.93% in 2015 to 58.10% in 2017.

    Sunlord Electronics' market share increased rapidly. In the global inductor market in 2017, the top six manufacturers accounted for 58.10%, of which Sunlord Electronics accounted for 6.7%, ranking fifth. In recent years, Sunlord Electronics has significantly led the leading Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers in terms of revenue CAGR, and the momentum of catching up is obvious.

   Revenue Growth Rate of Sunlord Electronics and International Leading Inductor Companies 2009-2018

Data source: compilation of public information

    Sunlord Electronics and International Leading Inductance Company 2009-2018 Revenue CAGR

Data source: compilation of public information

    三、Analysis and forecast of the market size trend of the inductor industry in 2019 and the next few years

    Inductors started late in our country and have always been an industry that the country strongly supports. In order to promote the rapid development of the electronic components industry, the government has issued a series of documents to guide and encourage the healthy and rapid development of the market.

    In recent years, my country's inductor industry has maintained steady growth. As of the end of 2017, the market size of my country's inductor industry has reached 13.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

    2013-2018 China's inductor industry market scale

Data source: compilation of public information

    In the future, the market size of my country's inductor industry will continue to maintain steady growth. It is estimated that by 2024, the market size of my country's inductor industry will reach 22.02 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 7.6%.

    2019-2024 China's inductor industry market size forecast

Data source: compilation of public information

    四、Global mobile phone inductor market scale forecast (quantity): inductors and filters benefit from 5G demand

    1、 Mobile phone terminal: Benefiting from the acceleration of 5G mobile phone sales, the rise of domestic mobile phone brands and the domestic substitution of electronic components.

    1) The 5G mobile phone shipment progress is accelerating, and the sales scale is expected to rise again and again, and the market is expected to explode ahead of schedule. Mobile phone manufacturers have officially launched 5G mobile phones in the second half of 2019. Apple, which is slightly behind, will also launch 5G mobile phones in 2020. This also makes the market more and more optimistic about the global sales and progress of 5G mobile phones in 2020. At present, the market generally believes that global 5G mobile phone shipments will reach 150 million to 200 million units in 2020, and the market share will exceed 10%, far exceeding the previous The expected number is less than 100 million.

    Global mobile phone shipment forecast

Data source: compilation of public information

    Global mobile phone market share

Data source: compilation of public information

    The advent of 5G will further increase the number of mobile phone inductors. The high frequency of 5G communication and the increased integration of internal components have caused interference problems that have greatly increased the use of stand-alone inductors, especially radio frequency inductors.

Global mobile phone stand-alone inductor consumption is gradually increasing

Data source: compilation of public information

    2019-2023 global mobile phone shipment forecast (unit: million)

Data source: compilation of public information

    Global stand-alone inductor consumption in 2019-2023 (units)

Data source: compilation of public information

     2019-2023 global mobile phone inductor consumption forecast (unit: 100 million)

Data source: compilation of public information

   2). The domestic smartphone brands are rising strongly, and Huami's OV share continues to increase.

    With the continuous development of technological life, domestic smartphones and other terminal products have risen strongly. Since 2018, the global smartphone market share has continued to concentrate on top manufacturers from China. This situation is expected to continue for several years.

  2018 Global Smartphone Manufacturer Shipment Ranking

Data source: compilation of public information

   Ranking of global smartphone manufacturers shipments in the first quarter of 2019

Data source: compilation of public information

    Ranking of global smartphone manufacturers shipments in the second quarter of 2019

Data source: compilation of public information

   The global shipments and proportions of the four major Huami OV brands are expected to continue to increase

Data source: compilation of public information

     3) Accelerating domestic substitution

    With the promotion of the transfer of the international industrial chain, coupled with the ZTE incident in 2018, considering the safety of the supply chain, downstream local manufacturers have accelerated the localization of raw materials and parts. The localization trend of chip inductor components is accelerating.

     2. Base station side: base station construction stimulates incremental demand for inductance, and 5G filters evolve to LTCC solutions

     The total number of 5G macro base stations is expected to reach 4.75 million, which is 1.3 times the number of 4G base stations at the end of 2018. The technical characteristics of 5G determine that the density of communication base stations is significantly higher than that of 4G base stations, and the demand for high-speed communication PCBs has increased. The 4G era mainly relies on macro base stations to transmit signals, and the frequency band is 2.3GHz. At present, the typical candidate frequency band for 5G is the high frequency band above 6GHz. The high frequency band means that the wavelength of the signal is greatly shortened, the energy attenuation is fast, the penetration ability is poor, and the coverage radius is smaller. Therefore, communication operators will not only need to encrypt 5G macro base station deployment, but also need to use various types of small base stations to supplement blind spots. The traditional mode of communication networking based on macro base stations will be transformed into a multi-level mode combining macro base stations, small base stations, and home base stations.

     According to forecasts, the final realization of 5G coverage in China requires the deployment of about 4.75 million 5G macro base stations, which is about 1.3 times the total number of 4G base stations at the end of 2018, and the deployment of about twice the number of small base stations. The mass construction and upgrading of base stations in the 5G era will create massive demand for passive components such as capacitors and inductors.

    The number of base stations required to cover the same area in the 5G era will greatly exceed 4G

Data source: compilation of public information

    2019-2026 my country's 5G macro base station construction scale forecast

Data source: compilation of public information

    1) The emergence of Massive MIMO and AUU architecture has increased the integration of radio frequency modules and circuit complexity, and the use of inductors in a single base station has increased significantly. The main idea of Massive MIMO (Massive Antenna Array) technology is to deploy large-scale and high-density antennas on the base station side to provide services for many mobile communication terminals at the same time. The number of single base station antennas will reach 8-16 times that of the 4G era. The increase in the number of antennas will bring about a simultaneous increase in the demand for radio frequency equipment, which in turn will drive the demand for passive components such as inductors. In the AUU (active antenna) architecture, the antenna feed system and BBU system of the 4G era are integrated on a PCB board. The increase in the integration of components increases the complexity of the circuit, and the amount of inductors that perform the functions of coupling, filtering, resonance, and choking will also increase.

     Multi-level application of inductors in 5G base station AAU midstream

Data source: compilation of public information

    On June 6, 2019, China's 5G commercial license was officially issued, and operators represented by China Mobile also carried out bidding and procurement of related network construction in the first time. Judging from the bidding, Huawei may occupy 40%-50% of the market share of domestic 5G infrastructure investment exceeding one trillion yuan.

     2) Ceramic dielectric filters are expected to become the mainstream of 5G base station filters

     Low-temperature co-fired ceramic technology (hereinafter referred to as "LTCC") is a multi-layer ceramic microwave material technology, which can embed passive components inside the substrate while mounting the active components on the surface of the substrate. With great flexibility, it truly realizes the three-dimensional structure that traditional polymers and traditional ceramic materials cannot obtain, and makes it into passive/active integrated functional modules. LTCC technology is currently the main solution for passive device integration and modularization recognized in the market.

   The dielectric filter based on the LTCC process has low dielectric loss, and has the good mechanical properties and chemical stability of ceramic materials, and has obvious advantages in 5G base station applications.

      In a base station, one antenna corresponds to a filter, so Massive MIMO (large-scale antenna array) technology will also bring about a rapid increase in the use of single-base station filters, which is 8-16 times that of the 4G era.

    Based on factors such as the number of base stations and the increase in the use of single base station filters and prices, it is estimated that the 5G base station filter market space is expected to reach about 4.5 times that of the 4G era, and it is one of the most flexible sub-sectors in the 5G infrastructure industry chain.

    Market space calculation of domestic macro base station filters in the 5G era

Data source: compilation of public information

   At present, there are two types of typical enterprises in the development and production of ceramic dielectric filters. The first type is represented by Dafu Technology, Chunxing Precision, Wuhan Fangu, who have worked in the traditional metal cavity filter industry for many years, and then began to develop ceramic dielectric filters. The first category is represented by Sunlord Electronics, Fenghua Hi-Tech (Guohua New Materials), and Dongshan Precision (Aif Electronics). Previously, they were deeply involved in the field of ceramic electronics. In recent years, they have begun to develop ceramic dielectric filters. Both types of representatives have their own strengths, and competition in this field is expected to be very fierce in the future.